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C.F. MANSKI ; J. MULLAHY ; A. VENKATARAMANI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2022The use of race measures in clinical prediction models and algorithms has become a highly contentious issue, driven by concerns that inclusion of race as a covariate exacerbates and perpetuates long-standing disparities in quality of health care[...]
Document de travail
C.F. MANSKI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2021This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization using est[...]
Document de travail
C.F. MANSKI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2021Vaccination against infectious disease may be beneficial to reduce illness in vaccinated persons and disease transmission across the population. The welfare-economic practice of specifying a social welfare function and considering a planner who [...]
Document de travail
C.F. MANSKI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2020COVID-19 antibody tests have imperfect accuracy. There has been lack of clarity on the meaning of reported rates of false positives and false negatives. For risk assessment and clinical decision making, the rates of interest are the positive and[...]
Document de travail
C.F. MANSKI ; F. MOLINARI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2020As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness conditional[...]
Document de travail
C.F. MANSKI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2019Statisticians have proposed meta-analysis to combine the findings of multiple studies of health risks or treatment response. The standard practice is to compute a weighted-average of the estimates. Yet it is not clear how to interpret a weighted[...]
Document de travail
P. GIUSTINELLI ; C.F. MANSKI ; F. MOLINARI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2019We elicit numerical expectations for late-onset dementia in the Health and Retirement Study. Our elicitation distinguishes between precise and imprecise probabilities, while accounting for rounding of reports. Respondents quantify imprecision us[...]
Document de travail
P. GIUSTINELLI ; C.F. MANSKI ; F. MOLINARI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2018A growing number of surveys elicit respondents’ expectations for future events on a 0-100 scale of percent chance. These data reveal substantial heaping at multiples of 10 and 5 percent, suggesting that respondents round their reports. This pape[...]
Document de travail
C.F. MANSKI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2017This paper discusses how limited ability to assess patient risk of illness and predict treatment response may affect the welfare achieved by adherence to clinical practice guidelines and by decentralized clinical practice. I explain why predicti[...]
Document de travail
C.F. MANSKI ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA | Cambridge : N.B.E.R. | 2007Suppose that there are two treatments for a condition. One is the status quo, whose properties are known from experience and the other is an innovation, whose properties are not known initially. A new cohort of persons presents itself each perio[...]
Ouvrage
Cet ouvrage fournit un langage et une série d'outils pour trouver des limites aux prévisions que les scientifiques en sciences sociales et comportementales peuvent logiquement faire à partir des données expérimentales et non expérimentales. Réal[...]
