| Titre : | The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19. |
| Titre original: | L'externalité de la contagion d'un événement de grande envergure : Le rallye moto de Sturgis et le COVID-19. |
| Titre de série : | NBER Working Paper, 27813 |
| Auteurs : | D.G. BLANCHPOWER ; A. BRYSON ; National Bureau of Economic Research. (N.B.E.R.). Cambridge CA. USA |
| Type de document : | Document de travail |
| Editeur : | Cambridge : N.B.E.R., 2020 |
| Format : | 28p., fig., tab. |
| Note générale : | Référence : réf. bib. |
| Langues: | Anglais |
| Catégories : |
[BDSP5] CANDES > Coronavirus [BDSP5] CANDES > GEOLOCALISATION [BDSP5] Economie santé > Coût santé [BDSP5] Géographie > Géographie humaine > Distance [BDSP5] Habitat & urbanisme [NI] > Espace > Espace public [BDSP5] Pathologie > Appareil respiratoire [pathologie] > Pneumopathie > Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère [BDSP5] Phénomène épidémiologique > Contagion [BDSP5] Phénomène épidémiologique > Contagion > Contagion horizontale [BDSP5] Phénomène épidémiologique > Epidémie [BDSP5] Variable épidémiologique > Risque > Facteur risque > Exposition |
| Résumé : | Large in-person gatherings without social distancing and with individuals who have traveled outside the local area are classified as the “highest risk” for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Between August 7 and August 16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual motorcycle rally. Large crowds, coupled with minimal mask-wearing and social distancing by attendees, raised concerns that this event could serve as a COVID-19 “super-spreader.” This study is the first to explore the impact of this event on social distancing and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. we document that (i) smartphone pings from non-residents, and (ii) foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially in the census block groups hosting Sturgis rally events. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents, as measured by median hours spent at home, fell. Second, using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and a synthetic control approach, we show that by September 2, a month following the onset of the Rally, COVID-19 cases increased by approximately 6 to 7 cases per 1,000 population in its home county of Meade. Finally, difference-in-differences (dose response) estimates show that following the Sturgis event, counties that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 7.0 to 12.5 percent increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties that did not contribute inflows. Descriptive evidence suggests these effects may be muted in states with stricter mitigation policies (i.e., restrictions on bar/restaurant openings, mask-wearing mandates). We conclude that the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally generated public health costs of as much as $12.2 billion. |
| En ligne : | https://www.nber.org/papers/w27813 |